The School of Odds

West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 7.52%13.30fair odd
EV +20.30%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.275%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.79%7.52%7.52%9.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
9.5014.6816.0016.0011%7%6%6%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 53.76%1.86fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -7.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.47%53.76%53.76%55.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.751.7560%58%57%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 38.72%2.58fair odd
EV +0.672%
Edge +0.258%
Kelly +0.420%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.33%38.72%38.72%40.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.282.362.302.6044%42%43%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
Virgin Bet16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:14
Casumo16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
LiveScore Bet16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:14
Unibet (SE)16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:14
Grosvenor16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
ATG (SE)16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
BetRivers16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -5.92%E -3.38%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -10.94%E -4.76%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 07:15
TABtouch16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV +20.30%E +1.27%K +1.35%G +0.275%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -6.99%E -4.04%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.64%EV -11.72%E -5.14%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 07:15
Betr (AU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -2.26%E -0.174%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.81%EV -10.76%E -6.48%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.06%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 12:09
TAB13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV -2.26%E -0.174%K -0.188%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.37%EV -8.61%E -5.06%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52%EV -7.07%E -2.95%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 13:50
Betway10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -24.81%E -2.48%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.61%E -5.06%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.76%EV -3.20%E -1.28%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 09:10
Paddy Power9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -28.57%E -3.01%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.00%EV -10.22%E -6.12%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.33%EV +0.672%E +0.258%K +0.420%G +0.003%8.9%2026-07-05 09:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.28%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.48%0.5%2026-07-05 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.18%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.73%0.7%2026-07-05 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.68%0.8%2026-07-05 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%5.2%2026-07-05 13:00