The School of Odds
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West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 54.90%1.82fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.79%54.90%54.90%55.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.701.701.7560.98%58.96%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV +0.681%
Edge +0.248%
Kelly +0.389%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.44%36.61%36.61%37.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.602.7540.00%38.76%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.49%11.79fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -0.606%
Kelly -0.666%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.40%8.49%8.49%10.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.6711.0011.0011.76%9.38%9.09%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 54.90%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 36.61%; Draw: 8.49%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.681%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.74%EV -9.41%E -5.70%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.44%EV +0.681%E +0.248%K +0.389%G +0.003%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -27.88%E -3.28%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-27 02:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:40
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.30%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.16%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-26 21:40
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -8.31%E -4.98%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.64%E -2.60%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-26 21:39
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.08%EV -5.02%E -2.90%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-27 13:49
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.51%EV -6.66%E -3.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.07%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -6.66%E -0.606%K -0.666%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-27 13:50
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.79%EV -3.92%E -2.24%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.95%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -23.63%E -2.63%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-27 13:49
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.18%EV -9.96%E -6.07%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.62%EV -10.91%E -1.04%K -1.15%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-26 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.37%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.98%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65%0.5%2026-06-27 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.66%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.68%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.65%0.5%2026-06-27 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.62%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.94%0.8%2026-06-27 13:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-06-27 13:10