The School of Odds
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West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 87.90%1.14fair odd
EV -7.71%
Edge -7.34%
Kelly -154.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.71%87.90%87.90%91.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0598.04%96.09%96.15%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 2.84%35.19fair odd
EV +187.04%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +3.50%

assuming max odds 101.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.95%2.84%2.84%4.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0063.6767.00101.004.76%1.57%1.49%0.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.26%10.80fair odd
EV +11.10%
Edge +0.925%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.90%9.26%9.26%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.9311.0012.0011.11%9.15%9.09%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 87.90%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 2.84%; Draw: 9.26%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 35.19. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 101.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +187.04%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.08%EV -7.71%E -7.34%K -154.11%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.95%EV +187.04%E +1.85%K +1.87%G +3.50%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.97%EV +11.10%E +0.925%K +1.01%G +0.112%4.6%2026-06-27 21:39
Unibet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
Casumo🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:10
BetRivers🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.08%EV -8.58%E -8.25%K -214.61%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.7%2026-06-28 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.81%EV -9.46%E -9.19%K -315.45%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.38%EV +90.42%E +1.35%K +1.37%G +1.24%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -2.79%E -0.265%K -0.293%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-28 09:10
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.78%EV -10.34%E -10.14%K -517.13%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.50%EV +73.36%E +1.20%K +1.22%G +0.897%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -2.79%E -0.265%K -0.293%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-28 09:09
TAB🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.25%EV -7.71%E -7.34%K -154.11%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +44.94%E +0.881%K +0.899%G +0.404%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +11.10%E +0.925%K +1.01%G +0.112%5.5%2026-06-28 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.60%EV -7.71%E -7.34%K -154.11%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +44.94%E +0.881%K +0.899%G +0.404%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV +1.84%E +0.168%K +0.184%G +0.003%6.3%2026-06-27 23:19
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.71%EV -7.71%E -7.34%K -154.11%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.29%EV -40.32%E -1.92%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -16.67%E -1.85%K -2.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-27 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.51%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.39%1.0%2026-06-28 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.51%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.10%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.39%1.0%2026-06-28 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 92.26%85.00I 1.18%NM 1.16%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.58%1.3%2026-06-28 13:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%2.0%2026-06-28 06:09