The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 5.68%17.61fair odd
EV +7.88%
Edge +0.415%
Kelly +0.438%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.91%5.68%5.68%6.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0016.2116.0019.006.67%6.17%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 10.77%9.29fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.269%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.85%10.77%10.77%11.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.149.509.5012.50%10.94%10.53%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 83.55%1.20fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -5.73%
Kelly -53.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.89%83.55%83.55%84.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.121.121.1290.91%89.51%89.29%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 5.68%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 10.77%; Draw: 83.55%. For West Indies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.88%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +7.88%E +0.415%K +0.438%G +0.035%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -7.25%E -6.54%K -65.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-07 11:04
Betr (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -3.47%E -0.204%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 23:15
Betway🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -3.47%E -0.204%K -0.217%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -13.86%E -1.73%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 11:05
Unibet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
Grosvenor🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:09
Unibet (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
Virgin Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:09
LiveScore Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
Casumo🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
BetRivers🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.92%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.18%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 12:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV -9.15%E -0.572%K -0.610%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV +2.29%E +0.241%K +0.269%G +0.006%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.30%EV -7.25%E -6.54%K -65.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-07 12:10
TAB🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -14.83%E -0.989%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.89%EV -6.42%E -5.73%K -53.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 13:45
TABtouch🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -14.83%E -0.989%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -3.10%E -0.344%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 83.64%EV -8.09%E -7.35%K -80.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-07 12:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.70%1.2%2026-07-07 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.70%1.2%2026-07-07 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎21.00I 4.76%NM 4.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.70%1.2%2026-07-07 13:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-07-07 13:30