The School of Odds
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West Indies v Sri Lanka

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 19.10%5.24fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -0.903%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.37%19.10%19.10%25.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.704.755.0027.03%21.29%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 62.66%1.60fair odd
EV +0.875%
Edge +0.544%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.87%62.66%62.66%63.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.491.471.6168.97%66.95%68.03%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.25%5.48fair odd
EV +0.361%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.080%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.77%18.25%18.25%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.225.505.5022.22%19.17%18.18%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 19.10%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 62.66%; Draw: 18.25%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.875%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -29.34%E -7.93%K -10.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV +0.875%E +0.544%K +1.43%G +0.013%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 01:25
TAB🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -2.88%E -1.86%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -17.89%E -3.97%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 13:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.43%EV -4.14%E -2.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -16.06%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 03:35
Neds🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.43%EV -4.14%E -2.70%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -16.06%E -3.49%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-04 03:35
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.51%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -13.32%E -2.81%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-04 03:35
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -4.51%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -17.89%E -3.97%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-04 03:35
Unibet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
Grosvenor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
Casumo🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
BetRivers🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:54
ATG (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.90%E -5.37%K -16.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 13:55
TABtouch🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -10.24%E -2.18%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.61%EV -9.15%E -6.31%K -20.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV +0.361%E +0.066%K +0.080%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-04 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33%1.0%2026-07-04 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33%1.0%2026-07-04 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.33%1.0%2026-07-04 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%5.3%2026-07-04 09:45