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West Indies v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-07-28 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Indies (Local)

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.40%33.81%33.81%34.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.752.752.8037.04%36.36%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 63.11%1.58fair odd
EV -6.59%
Edge -4.45%
Kelly -13.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.26%63.11%63.11%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.471.471.4869.44%68.26%68.03%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.07%32.56fair odd
EV +72.00%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.943%

assuming max odds 56.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.67%3.07%3.07%4.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0049.5751.0056.004.76%2.02%1.96%1.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Indies (Local): 33.81%; Pakistan (Visit): 63.11%; Draw: 3.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 32.56. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 56.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +72.00%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -9.12%E -6.33%K -20.72%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.67%EV +72.00%E +1.29%K +1.31%G +0.943%6.9%2026-07-28 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -9.12%E -6.33%K -20.72%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.67%EV +72.00%E +1.29%K +1.31%G +0.943%6.9%2026-07-28 11:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.73%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%5.9%2026-07-28 11:14
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.96%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.37%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%6.4%2026-07-28 11:14
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.96%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.37%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%6.4%2026-07-28 11:14
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.67%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.86%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%6.6%2026-07-28 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.56%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.37%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.83%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%7.0%2026-07-28 11:14
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.04%EV -9.12%E -6.33%K -20.72%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.81%EV +56.64%E +1.11%K +1.13%G +0.642%8.4%2026-07-28 11:14
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.26%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.86%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV -35.50%E -1.69%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-28 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.99%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.90%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.11%0.1%2026-07-28 13:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.95%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.81%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.25%0.2%2026-07-28 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.24%0.5%2026-07-28 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-07-28 13:15

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