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Sri Lanka v India

Kickoff: 2026-08-17 04:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 2.73%36.61fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.046%
Kelly -0.047%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.57%2.73%2.73%3.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
23.0033.5634.0036.004.35%2.98%2.94%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%52.92%52.92%53.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.771.771.8557.80%56.66%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 44.35%2.26fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.88%44.35%44.35%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.102.132.1552.63%47.55%46.95%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 2.73%; India (Visit): 52.92%; Draw: 44.35%. For Sri Lanka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 36.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 36.00, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.57%EV -1.65%E -0.046%K -0.047%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.42%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.01%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 04:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.57%EV -1.65%E -0.046%K -0.047%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.42%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.01%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 04:05
Grosvenor🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:09
LiveScore Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:09
Virgin Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:09
Unibet (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:10
Casumo🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:10
ATG (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.32%EV -6.33%E -3.57%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.90%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 04:10
BetRivers🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -6.86%E -3.90%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 04:09
Unibet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.36%EV -6.86%E -3.90%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 04:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.28%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -5.99%E -2.82%K -5.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.21%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 04:05
Neds🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.07%EV -5.80%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.21%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 04:05
TABtouch🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.34%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.94%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-17 04:09
Betway🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.70%EV -7.12%E -0.209%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-17 04:05
Betr (AU)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -37.17%E -1.62%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.68%EV -2.09%E -1.13%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.40%EV -15.74%E -8.29%K -17.49%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 23:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎48.00I 2.08%NM 2.07%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.49%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.44%0.7%2026-08-17 04:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎48.00I 2.08%NM 2.06%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.28%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.65%1.1%2026-08-17 04:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎48.00I 2.08%NM 2.05%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.87%1.4%2026-08-17 04:05