The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sri Lanka v India

Kickoff: 2026-08-18 04:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 3.98%25.15fair odd
EV +43.12%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.531%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.58%3.98%3.98%5.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0026.9426.0036.005.88%3.71%3.85%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 73.71%1.36fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -13.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.35%73.71%73.71%76.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.261.3081.97%79.51%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.31%4.48fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -0.785%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.31%22.31%23.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.224.304.3325.00%23.70%23.26%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 3.98%; India (Visit): 73.71%; Draw: 22.31%. For Sri Lanka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.15. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +43.12%E +1.20%K +1.23%G +0.531%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -10.07%E -8.25%K -45.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-18 03:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯36.00I 2.78%NM 2.58%EV +43.12%E +1.20%K +1.23%G +0.531%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -10.07%E -8.25%K -45.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-18 03:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +35.17%E +1.03%K +1.07%G +0.375%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.11%EV -7.86%E -6.29%K -31.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-18 03:15
Neds🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +35.17%E +1.03%K +1.07%G +0.375%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.11%EV -7.86%E -6.29%K -31.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-18 03:20
Unibet (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:29
LiveScore Bet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:24
Virgin Bet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:24
Casumo🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:24
ATG (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:25
Grosvenor🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.51%EV -6.38%E -5.03%K -23.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -3.40%E -0.785%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 12:29
Unibet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.12%E -5.65%K -27.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 12:29
BetRivers🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.12%E -5.65%K -27.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +3.36%E +0.129%K +0.134%G +0.005%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.54%EV -7.12%E -5.65%K -27.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -4.07%E -0.946%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-17 12:29
TABtouch🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%EV -0.613%E -0.025%K -0.026%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.36%EV -8.59%E -6.93%K -35.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%EV -6.30%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-17 12:25
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -16.52%E -0.786%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -7.86%E -6.29%K -31.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-18 03:15
TAB🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV -16.52%E -0.786%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -7.86%E -6.29%K -31.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-18 03:40
Betr (AU)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -32.42%E -1.91%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.35%EV -4.17%E -3.21%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -10.76%E -2.69%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 21:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%1.7%2026-08-18 04:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%1.7%2026-08-18 04:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92%1.25I 80.00%NM 78.69%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.39%1.7%2026-08-18 04:10