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Sri Lanka v India

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 04:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 3.32%30.16fair odd
EV +52.54%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.613%

assuming max odds 46.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.07%3.32%3.32%4.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0040.0041.0046.004.76%2.50%2.44%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 87.42%1.14fair odd
EV -6.46%
Edge -6.04%
Kelly -92.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.58%87.42%87.42%90.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.061.071.0796.15%94.34%93.46%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.27%10.79fair odd
EV +20.47%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.349%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.32%9.27%9.27%10.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.4410.0013.0011.11%9.58%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 3.32%; India (Visit): 87.42%; Draw: 9.27%. For Sri Lanka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 30.16. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +52.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.07%EV +52.54%E +1.14%K +1.17%G +0.613%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.61%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV +20.47%E +1.57%K +1.71%G +0.349%5.1%2026-08-19 04:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.07%EV +52.54%E +1.14%K +1.17%G +0.613%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.61%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV +20.47%E +1.57%K +1.71%G +0.349%5.1%2026-08-19 04:10
Unibet (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:20
BetRivers🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
Unibet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
Grosvenor🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
Casumo🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
Virgin Bet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
LiveScore Bet🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:20
ATG (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.30%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.25%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-19 03:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.35%EV -7.34%E -6.92%K -122.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-19 03:20
TAB🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.34%EV -6.46%E -6.04%K -92.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -16.60%E -1.84%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.62%EV -9.09%E -8.74%K -227.16%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +6.57%E +0.571%K +0.626%G +0.041%7.3%2026-08-19 04:10
Neds🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.62%EV -9.09%E -8.74%K -227.16%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +6.57%E +0.571%K +0.626%G +0.041%7.3%2026-08-19 04:10
TABtouch🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%EV +35.96%E +0.877%K +0.899%G +0.323%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.02%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.25%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -11.96%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 03:19
Betr (AU)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +12.75%E +0.375%K +0.386%G +0.049%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.04%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-18 12:44
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -30.36%E -1.45%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 86.58%EV -8.21%E -7.82%K -164.25%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -7.33%E -0.733%K -0.814%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-19 04:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎60.00I 1.67%NM 1.65%1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.9%2026-08-19 04:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎60.00I 1.67%NM 1.65%1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.61%0.9%2026-08-19 04:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎60.00I 1.67%NM 1.65%1.08I 92.59%NM 91.53%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%1.2%2026-08-19 04:10