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Sri Lanka v India

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 04:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 4.23%23.66fair odd
EV +43.67%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.578%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.75%4.23%4.23%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0025.4423.0034.004.76%3.93%4.35%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 64.95%1.54fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -11.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.02%64.95%64.95%66.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.431.421.4672.46%70.11%70.42%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.83%3.24fair odd
EV +0.181%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.081%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.02%30.83%30.83%33.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.093.233.2535.71%32.38%31.01%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 4.23%; India (Visit): 64.95%; Draw: 30.83%. For Sri Lanka (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.66. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV +43.67%E +1.28%K +1.32%G +0.578%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.84%EV -6.47%E -4.50%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.42%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 04:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV +43.67%E +1.28%K +1.32%G +0.578%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.84%EV -6.47%E -4.50%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.42%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.00%EV +31.00%E +1.000%K +1.03%G +0.320%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.75%EV -5.17%E -3.54%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.24%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 04:10
Neds🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 3.00%EV +31.00%E +1.000%K +1.03%G +0.320%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.75%EV -5.17%E -3.54%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.24%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 04:09
TAB🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV +9.87%E +0.379%K +0.395%G +0.039%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.28%EV -5.82%E -4.02%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 04:09
Grosvenor🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
Casumo🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
Virgin Bet🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
Unibet (SE)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
LiveScore Bet🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
ATG (SE)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.12%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -7.77%E -5.47%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 04:10
BetRivers🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.10%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.88%EV -8.42%E -5.97%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 04:09
Unibet🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.10%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.88%EV -8.42%E -5.97%K -20.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV +0.181%E +0.056%K +0.081%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 04:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.74%EV -9.07%E -6.48%K -22.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.36%E -0.425%K -0.618%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 04:10
TABtouch🎯23.00I 4.35%NM 4.01%EV -2.81%E -0.122%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -10.37%E -7.51%K -27.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -2.90%E -0.921%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 04:05
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV -11.26%E -0.536%K -0.563%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -5.82%E -4.02%K -12.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.63%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 04:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.88%1.2%2026-08-16 04:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎40.00I 2.50%NM 2.47%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.32%1.4%2026-08-16 04:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎42.00I 2.38%NM 2.34%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.44%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22%1.7%2026-08-16 04:09