The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 3.13%31.99fair odd
EV +43.79%
Edge +0.952%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.426%

assuming max odds 46.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.01%3.13%2.77%4.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0033.7834.0046.004.76%2.96%2.94%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 80.69%1.24fair odd
EV -4.79%
Edge -4.06%
Kelly -26.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.49%80.69%80.71%82.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.151.1889.29%87.00%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.18%6.18fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.185%
Kelly +0.220%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.11%16.18%16.52%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.926.056.2520.00%16.89%16.53%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 3.13%; Australia (Visit): 80.69%; Draw: 16.18%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.99. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +43.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.03%EV +43.79%E +0.952%K +0.973%G +0.426%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.45%EV -8.82%E -7.81%K -67.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -2.89%E -0.482%K -0.578%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-13 07:19
Paddy Power🎯46.00I 2.17%NM 2.01%EV +43.79%E +0.952%K +0.973%G +0.426%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.58%EV -9.63%E -8.60%K -80.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -2.89%E -0.482%K -0.578%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-13 07:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +28.16%E +0.687%K +0.704%G +0.198%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 15:34
Unibet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
Grosvenor🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:34
BetRivers🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
Casumo🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.11%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV +1.15%E +0.185%K +0.220%G +0.003%5.9%2026-10-12 15:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.94%EV -8.01%E -7.03%K -57.24%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -1.27%E -0.209%K -0.250%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 15:34
TABtouch🎯34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%EV +6.28%E +0.185%K +0.190%G +0.012%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -8.82%E -7.81%K -67.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -2.89%E -0.482%K -0.578%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-12 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.99%EV -3.10%E -0.100%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.49%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -19.08%E -3.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-13 07:19
Neds🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.99%EV -3.10%E -0.100%K -0.103%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.49%EV -4.79%E -4.06%K -26.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -19.08%E -3.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-13 07:20
Betr (AU)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV -18.73%E -0.720%K -0.749%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.91%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -2.89%E -0.482%K -0.578%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 15:44
TAB🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV -18.73%E -0.720%K -0.749%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.65%EV -6.40%E -5.52%K -40.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-13 07:15
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -34.36%E -1.64%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.12%EV -7.21%E -6.27%K -48.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -10.98%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-13 07:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%1.0%2026-10-13 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%1.0%2026-10-13 07:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.54%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.48%1.0%2026-10-13 07:25