The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 07:27 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 14.61%6.85fair odd
EV +2.25%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.375%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.35%14.61%13.79%16.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.666.887.0018.18%15.03%14.55%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 54.28%1.84fair odd
EV -6.10%
Edge -3.52%
Kelly -8.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.30%54.28%54.76%55.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.721.7362.50%58.69%58.14%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.40%31.11%31.45%31.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.973.003.0034.84%33.63%33.33%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 14.61%; Australia (Visit): 54.28%; Draw: 31.11%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.85. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:14
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:14
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:15
Casumo🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 15:14
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 15:14
BetRivers🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.46%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV +2.25%E +0.322%K +0.375%G +0.008%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 15:15
Betway🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.78%EV -1.40%E -0.207%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.70%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.52%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-12 07:00
TABtouch🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -1.40%E -0.207%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.99%EV -8.81%E -5.24%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.32%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 15:14
TAB🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -5.05%E -0.777%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.99%EV -8.81%E -5.24%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 06:44
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.05%E -0.777%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.14%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-12 07:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -5.05%E -0.777%K -0.919%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.62%EV -13.15%E -8.22%K -21.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.69%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-12 07:09
Neds🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -6.51%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.86%EV -6.10%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 07:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -6.51%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.86%EV -6.10%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 07:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -19.66%E -3.57%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.02%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-12 06:14
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -19.66%E -3.57%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.30%EV -6.64%E -3.86%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.34%EV -10.71%E -3.73%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.80I 12.82%NM 12.73%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.73%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-10-12 07:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.32%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%0.9%2026-10-12 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.99%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.97%0.9%2026-10-12 07:25