The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 07:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -0.985%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%25.68%25.95%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.703.7528.99%27.38%27.03%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 2.52%39.67fair odd
EV +68.87%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.719%

assuming max odds 67.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.38%2.52%1.84%4.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0060.7667.0067.004.76%1.65%1.49%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 71.80%1.39fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -5.13%
Kelly -22.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.77%71.80%72.21%73.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.281.281.3079.37%77.84%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 25.68%; Australia (Visit): 2.52%; Draw: 71.80%. For Australia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 39.67. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +68.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-20 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -4.98%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.39%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.41%EV -8.82%E -6.94%K -32.66%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-20 15:45
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.39%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.75%EV -8.10%E -6.33%K -28.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-21 07:40
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.98%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.38%EV +68.87%E +1.03%K +1.04%G +0.719%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.56%EV -9.54%E -7.57%K -36.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-20 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.98%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.53%EV +53.75%E +0.881%K +0.896%G +0.482%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.38%E -5.72%K -25.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-21 07:40
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.53%EV +53.75%E +0.881%K +0.896%G +0.482%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.80%EV -6.66%E -5.13%K -22.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 16:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -7.54%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +28.55%E +0.560%K +0.571%G +0.163%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.66%E -5.13%K -22.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-21 04:20
Neds🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -11.40%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +28.55%E +0.560%K +0.571%G +0.163%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.31%EV -6.66%E -5.13%K -22.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -11.40%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +28.55%E +0.560%K +0.571%G +0.163%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.31%EV -6.66%E -5.13%K -22.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 07:40
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.91%EV -10.11%E -2.89%K -4.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%EV -47.07%E -2.24%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -6.66%E -5.13%K -22.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-21 07:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%1.0%2026-10-21 07:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%1.0%2026-10-21 07:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%130.00I 0.77%NM 0.76%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%1.0%2026-10-21 07:40