The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 07:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 77.12%1.30fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -3.53%
Kelly -18.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.82%77.12%77.12%77.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.231.2485.47%81.80%81.63%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 0.66%152.63fair odd
EV +64.45%
Edge +0.257%
Kelly +0.258%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 251.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.38%0.66%0.66%0.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
101.00125.88101.00251.000.99%0.79%0.99%0.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.23%4.50fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.59%22.23%22.23%23.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.164.204.3025.64%24.06%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 77.12%; Australia (Visit): 0.66%; Draw: 22.23%. For Australia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 152.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 251.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +64.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.60%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.90%G +0.000%251.00I 0.40%NM 0.38%EV +64.45%E +0.257%K +0.258%G +0.166%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -4.41%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 07:20
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.82%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.90%G +0.000%200.00I 0.50%NM 0.46%EV +31.04%E +0.155%K +0.156%G +0.048%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.31%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 07:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.82%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.90%G +0.000%200.00I 0.50%NM 0.46%EV +31.04%E +0.155%K +0.156%G +0.048%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -13.31%E -3.41%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 07:35
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.21%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.31%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.74%EV -17.45%E -0.138%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 07:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.21%EV -7.46%E -6.22%K -37.31%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.74%EV -17.45%E -0.138%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.48%EV -4.38%E -3.53%K -18.24%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.94%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 07:15
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.63%EV -5.15%E -4.19%K -22.38%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.93%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 07:15
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.63%EV -5.15%E -4.19%K -22.38%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.93%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.36%EV -5.92%E -4.85%K -26.90%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.86%E -2.16%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-22 07:15
TABtouch🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.51%EV -6.69%E -5.53%K -31.86%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -8.86%E -2.16%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 07:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.51%EV -9.77%E -8.35%K -57.50%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.90%EV -33.83%E -0.335%K -0.338%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.59%EV -6.64%E -1.58%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 07:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.81%410.00I 0.24%NM 0.24%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95%0.2%2026-10-22 07:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.24%400.00I 0.25%NM 0.25%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51%0.5%2026-10-22 07:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.15%410.00I 0.24%NM 0.24%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%1.1%2026-10-22 07:40