The School of Odds
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South Africa v Australia

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 42.32%2.36fair odd
EV -0.540%
Edge -0.230%
Kelly -0.400%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.46%42.49%41.94%45.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.192.3547.62%45.83%45.66%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 48.13%2.08fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.508%
Kelly +0.969%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.02%48.05%48.31%50.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.971.942.1054.05%50.79%51.55%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.55%10.47fair odd
EV +5.05%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.505%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.53%9.46%9.76%10.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.649.5011.0011.11%10.37%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 42.32%; Australia (Visit): 48.13%; Draw: 9.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.78%EV -2.66%E -1.16%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.70%EV -10.97%E -5.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV +5.05%E +0.459%K +0.505%G +0.026%6.6%2026-10-04 21:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.24%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.91%EV -8.56%E -4.51%K -9.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +0.278%E +0.026%K +0.029%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 11:10
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.46%EV -0.540%E -0.230%K -0.400%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.04%EV -8.56%E -4.51%K -9.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 21:05
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.56%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 11:09
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.56%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 11:10
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.56%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 11:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.56%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -4.77%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -10.97%E -5.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -4.50%E -0.450%K -0.500%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 21:05
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.02%EV -11.12%E -5.30%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.02%EV +1.07%E +0.508%K +0.969%G +0.010%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 13:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:04
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:04
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -9.01%E -4.19%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.10%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 09:05
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.97%EV -9.43%E -4.41%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.13%EV -1.82%E -0.893%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.97%EV -9.43%E -4.41%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.13%EV -1.82%E -0.893%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -10.27%E -4.85%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -2.78%E -1.38%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 09:05
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -4.77%E -2.12%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -6.63%E -3.42%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 11:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.27%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -6.63%E -3.42%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 11:10
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.03%EV -11.12%E -5.30%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -3.75%E -1.87%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -9.27%E -0.976%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 09:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.83%EV -7.74%E -3.55%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.25%EV -9.04%E -4.78%K -10.16%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.91%EV -12.14%E -1.32%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-05 15:15
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.29%EV -11.12%E -5.30%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.37%EV -1.34%E -0.654%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -14.05%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 21:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.07%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -14.05%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 11:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -6.89%E -3.13%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.07%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -14.05%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.02%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%1.1%2026-10-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.02%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%1.1%2026-10-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.02%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%1.1%2026-10-05 14:55
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.21%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.83%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%1.5%2026-10-05 14:55