The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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South Africa v Australia

2026-10-09 08:00 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.30%42.96%42.96%42.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.182.202.2046.51%45.80%45.45%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Australia (Visit)

Prediction 46.18%2.17fair odd
EV -6.72%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -6.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%46.18%46.18%46.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.012.002.0250.00%49.83%50.00%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.87%9.20fair odd
EV -7.64%
Edge -0.899%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.87%10.87%10.87%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.338.508.5012.50%12.00%11.76%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: South Africa (Local): 42.96%; Australia (Visit): 46.18%; Draw: 10.87%. For South Africa (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -5.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -7.64%E -0.899%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-01 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -7.64%E -0.899%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 01:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.07%EV -6.72%E -3.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -13.08%E -1.63%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 00:20
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.07%EV -6.72%E -3.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -13.08%E -1.63%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 00:25
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.64%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -7.64%E -0.899%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 20:40
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.64%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -7.64%E -0.899%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 50.65%2.14I 46.73%NM 36.69%6.20I 16.13%NM 12.66%27.4%2026-10-02 01:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 50.65%2.14I 46.73%NM 36.69%6.20I 16.13%NM 12.66%27.4%2026-10-02 01:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 53.19%2.14I 46.73%NM 34.80%6.20I 16.13%NM 12.01%34.3%2026-10-02 01:10