The School of Odds
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Pakistan v Sri Lanka

2026-11-09 04:30 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pakistan (Local)

Prediction 53.10%1.88fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.13%53.10%53.10%53.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.751.751.7857.80%57.03%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sri Lanka (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%27.33%27.33%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.423.403.5029.85%29.27%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.56%5.11fair odd
EV -7.07%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.56%19.56%19.56%20.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.624.604.7522.22%21.66%21.74%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Pakistan (Local): 53.10%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 27.33%; Draw: 19.56%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -4.34%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -10.00%E -2.17%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-05 23:00
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -10.00%E -2.17%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-05 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.07%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-05 22:59
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -7.07%E -1.49%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-05 23:03
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -11.96%E -2.66%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-05 23:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -11.96%E -2.66%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-05 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 47.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.22%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.43%18.0%2026-11-06 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 47.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.22%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.43%18.0%2026-11-06 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 47.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.22%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.43%18.0%2026-11-06 00:35