The School of Odds
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Ireland v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-05-28 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ireland (Local)

Prediction 3.95%25.32fair odd
EV +61.91%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.958%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.27%3.95%3.95%4.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0027.1826.0041.004.76%3.68%3.85%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 62.32%1.60fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -4.35%
Kelly -13.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.98%62.32%62.32%64.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5069.44%67.14%66.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.73%2.96fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.95%33.73%33.73%35.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.752.8038.46%36.68%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 3.95%; New Zealand (Visit): 62.32%; Draw: 33.73%. For Ireland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.32. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +61.91%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
TAB🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.27%EV +61.91%E +1.51%K +1.55%G +0.958%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.98%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.76%EV -12.30%E -4.73%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-28 09:39
Paddy Power🎯31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%EV +22.42%E +0.723%K +0.747%G +0.167%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.07%EV -10.26%E -7.12%K -23.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.95%EV -5.55%E -1.98%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-27 18:09
Neds🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +14.52%E +0.501%K +0.519%G +0.075%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -8.93%E -3.31%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-27 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯29.00I 3.45%NM 3.22%EV +14.52%E +0.501%K +0.519%G +0.075%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -8.93%E -3.31%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-27 18:19
Unibet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:09
Unibet (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
Grosvenor🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
Casumo🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
BetRivers🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 18:09
Betr (AU)🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.38%EV -6.52%E -4.35%K -13.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.24%E -2.63%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 21:30
TABtouch🎯26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +2.67%E +0.103%K +0.107%G +0.003%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.30%EV -7.77%E -5.25%K -16.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.93%E -3.31%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-27 18:09
LeoVegas🎯25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV -1.28%E -0.051%K -0.053%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.30%EV -9.64%E -6.65%K -21.41%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -10.61%E -4.01%K -6.43%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-27 18:10
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV -17.07%E -0.813%K -0.854%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.26%EV -9.64%E -6.65%K -21.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.44%EV -8.93%E -3.31%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-27 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.85%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.83%0.4%2026-05-28 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.85%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.83%0.4%2026-05-28 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎75.00I 1.33%NM 1.33%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.85%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.83%0.4%2026-05-28 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%3.8%2026-05-28 09:19