Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

England v Pakistan

2026-08-21 10:00 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 89.94%1.11fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -5.30%
Kelly -111.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.01%89.94%89.94%92.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0599.01%97.14%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 6.74%14.83fair odd
EV +41.58%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.864%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.63%6.74%6.74%7.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0015.5316.0021.008.33%6.44%6.25%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.32%30.10fair odd
EV +36.20%
Edge +0.883%
Kelly +0.905%
Growth +0.328%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.26%3.32%3.32%4.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0037.1241.0041.004.76%2.69%2.44%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 89.94%; Pakistan (Visit): 6.74%; Draw: 3.32%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.83. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 21.00, producing a positive expected value of +41.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 92.52%EV -5.57%E -5.30%K -111.34%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +41.58%E +1.98%K +2.08%G +0.864%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +12.95%E +0.381%K +0.392%G +0.051%2.9%2026-08-21 00:43
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
Casumo🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.79%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%5.8%2026-08-20 18:34
Unibet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.86%EV -8.27%E -8.10%K -413.26%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%6.7%2026-08-20 18:34
BetRivers🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.86%EV -8.27%E -8.10%K -413.26%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%6.7%2026-08-20 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.86%EV -8.27%E -8.10%K -413.26%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%6.7%2026-08-20 18:34
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -9.16%E -9.07%K -916.46%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +7.87%E +0.492%K +0.525%G +0.041%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.26%EV +36.20%E +0.883%K +0.905%G +0.328%7.7%2026-08-20 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.06%EV -6.47%E -6.22%K -161.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +1.13%E +0.075%K +0.081%G +0.001%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV +19.59%E +0.544%K +0.560%G +0.110%5.6%2026-08-20 18:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.06%EV -6.47%E -6.22%K -161.66%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +1.13%E +0.075%K +0.081%G +0.001%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV +19.59%E +0.544%K +0.560%G +0.110%5.6%2026-08-20 18:34
Neds🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.59%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -5.61%E -0.401%K -0.432%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV +12.95%E +0.381%K +0.392%G +0.051%7.2%2026-08-20 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.59%EV -7.37%E -7.15%K -245.53%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.66%EV -5.61%E -0.401%K -0.432%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV +12.95%E +0.381%K +0.392%G +0.051%7.2%2026-08-20 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.47%EV -8.27%E -8.10%K -413.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -12.36%E -0.950%K -1.03%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.51%EV -13.63%E -0.524%K -0.545%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:40
Betway🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.01%EV -6.47%E -6.22%K -161.66%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -19.10%E -1.59%K -1.74%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV -30.24%E -1.44%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.45%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.8%2026-08-20 22:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.45%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.8%2026-08-20 22:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 94.45%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.13%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.8%2026-08-20 22:55

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