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England v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 56.33%1.78fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.79%56.33%56.33%58.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.631.7362.50%60.71%61.35%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 29.22%3.42fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.88%29.22%29.22%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.303.3032.26%30.85%30.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.45%6.92fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.195%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.33%14.45%14.45%16.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.547.007.0017.39%15.28%14.29%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 56.33%; Pakistan (Visit): 29.22%; Draw: 14.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.92. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.91%EV -8.19%E -5.02%K -13.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%5.9%2026-08-28 09:35
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%EV -8.75%E -5.40%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%6.3%2026-08-28 09:35
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%EV -8.75%E -5.40%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%6.3%2026-08-28 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -9.31%E -5.78%K -15.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV +1.17%E +0.167%K +0.195%G +0.002%7.2%2026-08-28 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -9.88%E -6.17%K -16.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -2.45%E -0.362%K -0.425%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 09:35
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.59%EV -4.24%E -2.50%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-27 18:36
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.55%EV -5.93%E -3.55%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-27 17:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.55%EV -5.93%E -3.55%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 03:40
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.85%EV -7.06%E -4.28%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 09:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.79%EV -8.75%E -5.40%K -14.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 05:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.79%EV -2.55%E -1.48%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -16.90%E -2.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-27 18:06
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.79%EV -2.55%E -1.48%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -16.90%E -2.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-27 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%0.6%2026-08-28 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%0.6%2026-08-28 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%0.6%2026-08-28 09:55