The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v Pakistan

2026-09-10 10:00 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 89.27%1.12fair odd
EV -8.95%
Edge -8.77%
Kelly -447.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.27%89.27%89.27%95.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0299.01%98.52%98.52%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 6.44%15.53fair odd
EV +67.44%
Edge +2.59%
Kelly +2.70%
Growth +1.82%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%6.44%6.44%6.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.0020.0020.0026.007.14%5.00%5.00%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.29%23.29fair odd
EV +333.62%
Edge +3.30%
Kelly +3.34%
Growth +11.13%

assuming max odds 101.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.96%4.29%4.29%4.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0061.0061.00101.004.76%1.64%1.64%0.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 89.27%; Pakistan (Visit): 6.44%; Draw: 4.29%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.29. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 101.00, producing a positive expected value of +333.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.30%EV -8.95%E -8.77%K -447.40%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +67.44%E +2.59%K +2.70%G +1.82%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.96%EV +333.62%E +3.30%K +3.34%G +11.13%2.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.27%EV -9.84%E -9.74%K -984.06%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.44%EV -9.84%E -0.703%K -0.757%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.29%EV -9.84%E -0.469%K -0.492%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-09 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.27%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%390.00I 0.26%NM 0.25%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.27%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%390.00I 0.26%NM 0.25%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.27%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48%390.00I 0.26%NM 0.25%0.8%2026-09-09 17:40