The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 57.48%1.74fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -3.12%
Kelly -7.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.16%57.48%57.48%59.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.601.601.6564.94%62.48%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.88%38.69%38.69%39.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.482.5042.55%40.73%40.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.83%26.12fair odd
EV +11.03%
Edge +0.380%
Kelly +0.394%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.13%3.83%3.83%4.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0026.1829.0029.004.76%3.82%3.45%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 57.48%; New Zealand (Visit): 38.69%; Draw: 3.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.12. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.03%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.99%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%5.9%2026-06-04 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.81%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.94%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%6.3%2026-06-04 18:29
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.81%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.94%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%6.3%2026-06-04 18:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.27%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%7.5%2026-06-04 18:29
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.15%EV -10.32%E -6.62%K -18.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%8.4%2026-06-04 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.01%EV -11.47%E -7.45%K -21.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.13%EV +11.03%E +0.380%K +0.394%G +0.043%10.1%2026-06-04 18:29
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.27%EV -8.02%E -5.02%K -13.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-05 03:00
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.16%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -9.09%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-04 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.16%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -9.09%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-04 18:40
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.16%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -9.09%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-04 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.07%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.52%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.73%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -19.60%E -0.933%K -0.980%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-05 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.28%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.16%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.56%0.4%2026-06-05 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.86%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.5%2026-06-05 09:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.59%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.86%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.5%2026-06-05 09:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-06-05 02:00