The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 46.36%2.16fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.91%46.36%46.36%47.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.052.0552.36%49.39%48.78%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 42.28%2.37fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -3.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%42.28%42.28%42.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.222.232.2546.51%45.02%44.84%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.36%8.80fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -0.402%
Kelly -0.456%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.97%11.36%11.36%12.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.507.888.008.5013.33%12.69%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 46.36%; New Zealand (Visit): 42.28%; Draw: 11.36%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.50, with an expected value of -3.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.14%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-17 18:10
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -14.78%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-17 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -14.78%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-17 18:20
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -4.96%E -2.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -9.10%E -4.23%K -7.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -14.78%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-18 08:50
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -5.42%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.16%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-17 18:10
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -5.42%E -2.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.16%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-17 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.33%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.97%EV -5.72%E -2.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-17 18:10
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.63%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.42%E -0.402%K -0.456%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-17 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-17 18:10
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -9.10%E -1.14%K -1.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-17 18:10
LeoVegas🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.20%EV -9.13%E -4.66%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.73%EV -8.26%E -3.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -14.78%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-17 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.54%EV -11.45%E -6.00%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.35%EV -4.88%E -2.17%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -14.78%E -1.97%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-18 01:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80%0.6%2026-06-18 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80%0.6%2026-06-18 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.60%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.80%0.6%2026-06-18 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-06-18 06:40