Language:English
England v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 37.92%2.64fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.54%38.16%37.93%39.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.292.452.452.5543.67%40.83%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 33.75%2.96fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.14%33.87%33.66%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.762.752.8038.17%36.27%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.34%3.53fair odd
EV +7.68%
Edge +2.02%
Kelly +2.74%
Growth +0.210%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.08%27.97%28.41%29.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.303.303.8032.05%30.26%30.30%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 37.92%; New Zealand (Visit): 33.75%; Draw: 28.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.68%.
2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.88%EV -9.38%E -3.92%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.04%EV -8.21%E -3.02%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.08%EV +7.68%E +2.02%K +2.74%G +0.210% | 4.9% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.72%EV -7.86%E -3.23%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.72%EV -7.86%E -3.23%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.60%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 39.85%EV -13.17%E -5.75%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 33.31%EV -7.54%E -2.75%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.33%EV -7.86%E -3.23%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -5.08%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -5.08%E -1.51%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-04 09:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.89%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.89%E -4.64%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -8.89%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.49%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-04 09:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.94%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-04 09:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.16%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.67%EV -8.21%E -3.02%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -7.10%E -2.90%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-04 09:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.89%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.89%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.89%E -3.29%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -9.00%E -3.75%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.36%EV -11.59%E -4.42%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.33%E -2.91%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-06-04 09:48 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -3.31%E -1.30%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -7.20%E -2.62%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -10.74%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.12%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -11.59%E -3.72%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-04 09:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.12%EV -5.20%E -2.08%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.51%E -1.97%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.74%EV -11.59%E -3.72%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.36% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.3% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.03% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07% | 0.4% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.03% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.89% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07% | 0.4% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-06-04 09:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 5.6% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75% | 6.3% | 2026-06-04 09:49 |