The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 51.29%1.95fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.52%51.29%51.29%53.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.811.821.8858.82%55.18%54.95%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 16.32%6.13fair odd
EV -6.16%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.23%16.32%16.32%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.645.755.7518.52%17.73%17.39%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.39%3.09fair odd
EV +0.413%
Edge +0.133%
Kelly +0.197%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%32.39%32.39%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.943.003.1035.71%34.01%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 51.29%; New Zealand (Visit): 16.32%; Draw: 32.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.413%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.84%EV -12.81%E -7.54%K -18.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.24%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV +0.413%E +0.133%K +0.197%G +0.001%9.3%2026-06-27 09:49
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:49
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -6.65%E -3.66%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 09:49
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.13%EV -7.17%E -3.96%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 09:49
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.13%EV -7.17%E -3.96%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -2.83%E -0.942%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.68%E -4.27%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-27 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.05%EV -8.71%E -4.89%K -11.16%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -8.61%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -4.45%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-27 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.34%EV -7.68%E -4.27%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -10.24%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -6.07%E -2.09%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-27 02:19
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.93%EV -10.25%E -5.85%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.24%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.55%EV -6.71%E -2.33%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-27 09:49
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -5.12%E -2.77%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -6.16%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-26 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.25%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-26 18:00
Neds🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -3.58%E -1.90%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -11.87%E -2.20%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.25%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-26 17:59
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.34%EV -6.14%E -3.36%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.24%E -1.86%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.30%E -3.32%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-26 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.47%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.49%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%0.9%2026-06-27 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.58%0.9%2026-06-27 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.44%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.58%0.9%2026-06-27 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%5.8%2026-06-27 08:09