The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 30.77%3.25fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.36%30.77%30.77%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.043.053.1033.90%32.89%32.79%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 59.67%1.68fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -7.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.30%59.67%59.67%60.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.571.571.6065.36%63.82%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.55%10.47fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -0.445%
Kelly -0.495%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.27%9.55%9.55%10.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.599.5010.0011.11%10.42%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 30.77%; New Zealand (Visit): 59.67%; Draw: 9.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 10.00, with an expected value of -4.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.96%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.96%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 18:10
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.12%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 18:10
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.12%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.12%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -4.60%E -1.48%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.12%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 18:10
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.52%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -9.23%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.52%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -9.23%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 18:10
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.52%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84%EV -9.23%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 18:20
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.36%EV -6.14%E -2.01%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.35%EV -6.91%E -4.43%K -12.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.29%EV -14.01%E -1.56%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-18 18:10
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.82%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.45%E -0.445%K -0.495%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-18 19:20
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.51%E -4.84%K -13.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -14.01%E -1.56%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-19 09:50
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.68%E -2.56%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.84%EV -8.70%E -5.69%K -16.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -9.23%E -0.972%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-18 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.22%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.30%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.54%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.08%EV -11.62%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-18 19:20
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.22%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.30%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.54%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.08%EV -11.62%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-18 19:20
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.71%EV -9.22%E -3.12%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -8.70%E -5.69%K -16.42%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -14.01%E -1.56%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-18 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.73%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.04%0.6%2026-06-19 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.73%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.04%0.6%2026-06-19 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.23%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.73%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.04%0.6%2026-06-19 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-06-19 02:00