The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 7.21%13.87fair odd
EV -6.30%
Edge -0.485%
Kelly -0.525%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.07%7.21%7.21%9.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5012.4413.0013.0010.53%8.04%7.69%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 79.41%1.26fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -4.63%
Kelly -28.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.03%79.41%79.41%80.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.1987.72%84.79%84.75%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.39%7.47fair odd
EV +0.391%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.26%13.39%13.39%13.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.037.007.5014.81%14.23%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 7.21%; New Zealand (Visit): 79.41%; Draw: 13.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.391%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.69%EV -31.53%E -3.32%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.03%EV -6.30%E -5.34%K -35.00%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV +0.391%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-20 07:49
Paddy Power🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.67%EV -9.48%E -8.31%K -67.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV +0.391%E +0.052%K +0.060%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-20 09:50
Unibet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
Casumo🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
Grosvenor🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
BetRivers🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.51%E -4.63%K -28.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -6.30%E -5.34%K -35.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-19 17:40
Betway🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV -6.30%E -0.485%K -0.525%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.55%EV -7.09%E -6.06%K -41.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-20 09:49
Neds🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -17.11%E -1.49%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.67%EV -6.30%E -5.34%K -35.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-20 09:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -17.11%E -1.49%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.67%EV -6.30%E -5.34%K -35.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-20 09:50
TAB🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -20.72%E -1.88%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -6.30%E -5.34%K -35.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -6.30%E -0.900%K -1.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-20 08:30
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -9.91%E -0.792%K -0.861%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -7.09%E -6.06%K -41.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -9.65%E -1.43%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-19 17:40
LeoVegas🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.29%EV -9.91%E -0.792%K -0.861%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.22%EV -8.68%E -7.55%K -57.88%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -9.65%E -1.43%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-19 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-06-20 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-06-20 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.86%1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-06-20 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%4.9%2026-06-20 02:00