The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 74.81%1.34fair odd
EV -6.48%
Edge -5.19%
Kelly -25.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.51%74.81%74.81%77.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2584.75%82.04%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%22.71%22.71%24.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.124.204.2526.32%24.29%23.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.48%40.33fair odd
EV +212.42%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +3.61%

assuming max odds 126.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.74%2.48%2.48%4.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.00112.11126.00126.004.76%0.89%0.79%0.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 74.81%; New Zealand (Visit): 22.71%; Draw: 2.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 40.33. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 126.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +212.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.12%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.49%E -0.821%K -1.07%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.75%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%6.3%2026-06-06 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.06%EV -9.48%E -7.83%K -45.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.74%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%7.2%2026-06-06 09:49
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.06%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.74%EV +212.42%E +1.69%K +1.70%G +3.61%7.8%2026-06-06 07:29
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.18%EV -10.23%E -8.52%K -51.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%121.00I 0.83%NM 0.77%EV +200.02%E +1.65%K +1.67%G +3.33%8.0%2026-06-06 09:49
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.07%EV -11.72%E -9.93%K -65.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%121.00I 0.83%NM 0.75%EV +200.02%E +1.65%K +1.67%G +3.33%10.0%2026-06-06 09:49
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.77%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.93%EV +150.43%E +1.49%K +1.50%G +2.26%6.8%2026-06-06 09:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.71%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV +150.43%E +1.49%K +1.50%G +2.26%8.0%2026-06-06 07:29
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.71%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV +150.43%E +1.49%K +1.50%G +2.26%8.0%2026-06-06 07:29
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.07%EV -10.23%E -8.52%K -51.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV +150.43%E +1.49%K +1.50%G +2.26%8.1%2026-06-06 09:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.48%EV -6.48%E -5.19%K -25.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.02%EV +125.64%E +1.38%K +1.40%G +1.75%7.4%2026-06-06 01:49
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.51%EV -8.73%E -7.15%K -39.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.21%EV -47.93%E -2.28%K -2.40%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-05 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%320.00I 0.31%NM 0.31%0.8%2026-06-06 09:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%320.00I 0.31%NM 0.31%0.8%2026-06-06 09:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.57%320.00I 0.31%NM 0.31%0.8%2026-06-06 09:40