The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bangladesh v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 88.35%1.13fair odd
EV -7.23%
Edge -6.89%
Kelly -144.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.28%88.35%88.35%93.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0599.01%96.02%95.69%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 9.00%11.11fair odd
EV +52.95%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +3.31%
Growth +1.75%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.65%9.00%9.00%9.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.3211.0017.0010.53%8.83%9.09%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.65%37.69fair odd
EV +141.44%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +2.22%

assuming max odds 91.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.03%2.65%2.65%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0082.7991.0091.004.76%1.21%1.10%1.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 88.35%; Pakistan (Visit): 9.00%; Draw: 2.65%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 37.69. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 91.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +141.44%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
Casumo🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.33%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.04%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%5.4%2026-05-20 03:39
BetRivers🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.42%EV -8.12%E -7.80%K -202.91%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.03%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%6.3%2026-05-20 03:39
Unibet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.42%EV -8.12%E -7.80%K -202.91%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%EV -1.03%E -0.094%K -0.103%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.03%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%6.3%2026-05-20 03:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.05%EV -8.12%E -7.80%K -202.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -5.53%E -0.527%K -0.582%G +0.000%91.00I 1.10%NM 1.03%EV +141.44%E +1.55%K +1.57%G +2.22%6.8%2026-05-20 03:40
TAB🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.17%EV -9.00%E -8.74%K -299.99%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.65%EV +52.95%E +3.11%K +3.31%G +1.75%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.18%EV +114.91%E +1.42%K +1.44%G +1.65%4.2%2026-05-20 03:49
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.02%EV -9.00%E -8.74%K -299.99%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -5.53%E -0.527%K -0.582%G +0.000%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.14%EV +114.91%E +1.42%K +1.44%G +1.65%7.8%2026-05-20 03:39
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.81%EV -10.77%E -10.66%K -1076.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.03%E -1.00%K -1.11%G +0.000%81.00I 1.23%NM 1.12%EV +114.91%E +1.42%K +1.44%G +1.65%10.2%2026-05-20 03:39
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.36%EV -7.23%E -6.89%K -144.66%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.38%EV +16.96%E +1.30%K +1.41%G +0.240%76.00I 1.32%NM 1.26%EV +101.64%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.38%4.2%2026-05-19 11:40
Betway🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.28%EV -8.12%E -7.80%K -202.91%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -14.53%E -1.53%K -1.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -44.28%E -2.11%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-19 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 94.16%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%200.00I 0.50%NM 0.49%1.1%2026-05-20 03:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 94.16%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%200.00I 0.50%NM 0.49%1.1%2026-05-20 03:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.01%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%200.00I 0.50%NM 0.49%1.2%2026-05-20 03:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%4.8%2026-05-20 03:19