Language:English
Bangladesh v Pakistan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bangladesh (Local)
Prediction 40.44%2.47fair odd
EV -0.510%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.350%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.41%40.46%40.53%42.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.282.4647.62%43.58%43.86%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pakistan (Visit)
Prediction 51.48%1.94fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.49%51.42%51.48%53.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.831.821.9057.47%54.77%54.95%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.08%12.37fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +0.390%
Kelly +0.422%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.14%8.12%7.99%9.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0611.3111.0013.009.94%8.84%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 40.44%; Pakistan (Visit): 51.48%; Draw: 8.08%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.
3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.00%EV -2.94%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.80%EV -10.43%E -6.00%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV +5.06%E +0.390%K +0.422%G +0.021% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 03:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.27%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -7.34%E -4.08%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +5.06%E +0.390%K +0.422%G +0.021% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -2.20%E -1.16%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.91%EV -3.02%E -0.251%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -2.20%E -1.16%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.91%EV -3.02%E -0.251%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -2.20%E -1.16%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.91%EV -3.02%E -0.251%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -4.77%E -2.58%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.80%EV -3.02%E -0.251%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.80%E -3.17%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -3.02%E -0.251%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.43%EV -4.77%E -2.58%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.43%EV -4.77%E -2.58%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.11%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.96%EV -4.77%E -2.58%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.04%EV -7.06%E -0.614%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 03:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -6.32%E -3.47%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.53%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.50%EV -3.74%E -2.00%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 03:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.89%EV -6.17%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.70%EV -7.86%E -4.39%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.51%EV -5.80%E -3.17%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -9.00%E -4.00%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.51%EV -5.80%E -3.17%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 03:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.42%EV -15.07%E -7.18%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.49%EV -7.34%E -4.08%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -11.10%E -1.01%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-08 03:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.92%EV -7.79%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -8.89%E -5.02%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.67%EV -15.14%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 03:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -9.92%E -5.67%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.91%EV -17.16%E -1.67%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-08 03:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.41%EV -0.510%E -0.207%K -0.350%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.20%EV -6.83%E -3.77%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 10.06I 9.94%NM 9.39%EV -18.70%E -1.86%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 03:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.98% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.77% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.24% | 0.1% | 2026-05-08 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.55% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.21% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.23% | 0.3% | 2026-05-08 03:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.87% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.90% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.23% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.87% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.90% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.23% | 0.4% | 2026-05-08 03:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 03:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 03:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96% | 8.3% | 2026-05-08 03:50 |