The School of Odds
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Bangladesh v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 03:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 26.90%3.72fair odd
EV -5.86%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.35%26.90%26.90%27.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.443.453.5029.85%29.04%28.99%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 39.11%2.56fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.64%39.11%39.11%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.422.4343.48%41.86%41.41%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.99%2.94fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%33.99%33.99%34.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.772.752.8037.04%36.12%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 26.90%; Pakistan (Visit): 39.11%; Draw: 33.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -4.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.86%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 12:59
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.86%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -10.04%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 11:49
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:39
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:39
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:40
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.88%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 11:39
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 11:40
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -4.95%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -6.13%E -2.55%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.98%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 11:40
Neds🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:04
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.91%E -2.90%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.54%E -2.38%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 11:40
TAB🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.04%E -4.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -4.84%E -1.73%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 03:25
LeoVegas🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -9.89%E -2.95%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -8.08%E -3.44%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -8.23%E -3.05%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%1.4%2026-05-11 03:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.43%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%1.4%2026-05-11 03:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.20%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%2.0%2026-05-11 03:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-05-11 03:29