The School of Odds
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Bangladesh v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 15.05%6.64fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.395%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.25%15.05%15.21%16.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.016.006.5018.18%16.65%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 44.88%2.23fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.10%44.88%44.95%46.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.152.1750.00%47.46%46.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 40.07%2.50fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.36%40.07%39.84%40.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.322.302.4044.84%43.08%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 15.05%; Pakistan (Visit): 44.88%; Draw: 40.07%. For Bangladesh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.50, with an expected value of -2.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -2.17%E -0.335%K -0.395%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.55%EV -10.23%E -5.12%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.12%EV -4.64%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 11:40
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -2.17%E -0.335%K -0.395%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -10.23%E -5.12%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -5.85%E -2.49%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 11:44
Unibet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
Casumo🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
Virgin Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
BetRivers🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -2.60%E -1.20%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.85%E -3.41%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.45%EV -3.50%E -1.63%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.98%EV -8.65%E -3.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 11:40
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.99%E -3.90%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.90%EV -3.84%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 12:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.99%E -3.90%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.90%EV -3.84%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 12:24
Betr (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -10.23%E -5.12%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.84%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 01:09
Marathon Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -9.70%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.95%EV -8.89%E -4.38%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 39.84%EV -8.25%E -3.60%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 20:04
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -12.71%E -2.19%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.10%EV -3.95%E -1.84%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.99%EV -9.85%E -4.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 11:40
LeoVegas🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.72%EV -12.71%E -2.19%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -5.74%E -2.74%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.88%EV -10.65%E -4.78%K -8.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 11:40
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.74%EV -17.22%E -3.13%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -7.99%E -3.90%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -3.84%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 03:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.62%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.00%1.0%2026-05-10 03:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.62%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.00%1.0%2026-05-10 03:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.40I 13.51%NM 13.38%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.62%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.00%1.0%2026-05-10 03:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%5.0%2026-05-10 03:49