The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bangladesh v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 82.41%1.21fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -27.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.21%82.41%82.41%84.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1690.09%87.26%86.96%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 12.08%8.28fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.362%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.98%12.08%12.08%14.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.507.508.5015.38%13.33%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.50%18.18fair odd
EV +4.54%
Edge +0.239%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.91%5.50%5.50%5.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
16.0017.1317.0019.006.25%5.84%5.88%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 82.41%; Pakistan (Visit): 12.08%; Draw: 5.50%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.54%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.28%EV -6.87%E -6.08%K -52.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -3.33%E -0.416%K -0.475%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +4.54%E +0.239%K +0.252%G +0.011%6.3%2026-05-19 02:40
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -8.52%E -7.68%K -77.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +2.71%E +0.319%K +0.362%G +0.010%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +4.54%E +0.239%K +0.252%G +0.011%7.1%2026-05-18 11:25
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.77%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.65%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 03:50
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.90%EV -5.22%E -4.54%K -34.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 03:50
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.90%EV -5.22%E -4.54%K -34.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 03:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.90%EV -5.22%E -4.54%K -34.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -9.37%E -1.25%K -1.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 03:50
TAB🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.21%EV -4.40%E -3.79%K -27.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -21.45%E -3.30%K -3.90%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-19 03:50
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -7.70%E -6.87%K -64.13%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -3.33%E -0.416%K -0.475%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -6.47%E -0.380%K -0.404%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-18 11:25
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.03%EV -6.05%E -5.31%K -43.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -15.41%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -11.97%E -0.748%K -0.798%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-19 03:50
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.30%EV -7.70%E -6.87%K -64.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -15.41%E -2.20%K -2.57%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%EV -11.97%E -0.748%K -0.798%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-19 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.14%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.37%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.50%1.1%2026-05-19 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 82.96%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.34%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.70%1.3%2026-05-19 03:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 82.76%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.31%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92%1.5%2026-05-19 03:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%5.9%2026-05-19 02:49