The School of Odds
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Bangladesh v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bangladesh (Local)

Prediction 47.62%2.10fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -4.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.67%47.62%47.71%48.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.972.0053.48%51.15%50.76%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 25.93%3.86fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%25.93%25.85%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.613.653.8028.57%27.72%27.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.45%3.78fair odd
EV -7.44%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.21%26.45%26.44%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.483.503.5029.41%28.69%28.57%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bangladesh (Local): 47.62%; Pakistan (Visit): 25.93%; Draw: 26.45%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.75%E -2.38%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 12:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.43%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 11:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.43%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 11:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 03:54
Neds🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -5.70%E -2.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 03:54
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:39
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:49
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:49
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.56%EV -6.18%E -3.14%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.69%EV -6.66%E -3.40%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -5.35%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 11:50
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.13%E -3.66%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.24%E -2.64%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 03:54
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.59%EV -7.61%E -3.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.76%E -2.54%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 11:49
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.49%EV -8.56%E -4.46%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -7.95%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-08 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -9.04%E -4.73%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.65%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.44%E -2.13%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 03:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.01%EV -9.51%E -5.01%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.77%EV -8.21%E -2.32%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.21%EV -7.97%E -2.29%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 03:53
TAB🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.97%EV -10.94%E -5.85%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -1.46%E -0.385%K -0.523%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -10.09%E -2.97%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-05-09 03:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-05-09 03:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%1.8%2026-05-09 03:54

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-05-09 03:13