The School of Odds
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Afghanistan v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Afghanistan (Local)

Prediction 8.53%11.72fair odd
EV +2.38%
Edge +0.199%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.82%8.53%8.53%9.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.5712.0012.0010.00%8.64%8.33%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 87.46%1.14fair odd
EV -5.54%
Edge -5.13%
Kelly -69.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.08%87.46%87.46%88.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.0895.24%93.83%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.01%24.97fair odd
EV +4.14%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.166%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.61%4.01%4.01%5.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
17.0024.4326.0026.005.88%4.09%3.85%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Afghanistan (Local): 8.53%; Bangladesh (Visit): 87.46%; Draw: 4.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.97. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:35
Casumo🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:35
Grosvenor🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:34
ATG (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.47%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%5.6%2026-10-11 13:34
Unibet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.57%EV -7.29%E -6.88%K -121.49%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%6.5%2026-10-11 13:34
BetRivers🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%EV +2.38%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.57%EV -7.29%E -6.88%K -121.49%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +4.14%E +0.159%K +0.166%G +0.007%6.5%2026-10-11 13:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV -1.88%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.14%EV -7.29%E -6.88%K -121.49%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%EV +0.137%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 13:34
TABtouch🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -1.88%E -0.164%K -0.179%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.24%EV -8.16%E -7.78%K -163.28%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +0.137%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 13:34
Neds🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.53%EV -7.29%E -6.88%K -121.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -7.87%E -0.342%K -0.358%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 04:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.53%EV -7.29%E -6.88%K -121.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -7.87%E -0.342%K -0.358%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 04:24
Betway🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36%EV -6.41%E -6.00%K -91.64%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -15.88%E -0.756%K -0.794%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 04:24
TAB🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.08%EV -5.54%E -5.13%K -69.25%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%EV -31.91%E -1.88%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%1.11I 90.09%NM 89.10%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%1.1%2026-10-12 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%1.10I 90.91%NM 89.89%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%1.1%2026-10-12 04:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82%1.10I 90.91%NM 89.89%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%1.1%2026-10-12 04:05