The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Afghanistan v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Afghanistan (Local)

Prediction 2.84%35.26fair odd
EV +186.44%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +3.48%

assuming max odds 101.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.92%2.84%2.84%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0065.0067.00101.004.76%1.54%1.49%0.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 86.24%1.16fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -3.05%
Kelly -28.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.36%86.24%86.24%88.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.061.1295.24%93.87%94.34%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.92%9.15fair odd
EV +3.78%
Edge +0.398%
Kelly +0.445%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.90%10.92%10.92%14.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.939.509.5015.38%11.19%10.53%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Afghanistan (Local): 2.84%; Bangladesh (Visit): 86.24%; Draw: 10.92%. For Afghanistan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 35.26. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 101.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +186.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV +186.44%E +1.85%K +1.86%G +3.48%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.09%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.14%E -0.840%K -0.952%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 14:00
Neds🎯101.00I 0.99%NM 0.92%EV +186.44%E +1.85%K +1.86%G +3.48%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.09%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -7.14%E -0.840%K -0.952%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 14:00
Unibet🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 15:59
Casumo🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 15:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 16:00
Grosvenor🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 15:59
BetRivers🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.06I 94.34%NM 88.70%EV -8.59%E -8.10%K -143.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +3.78%E +0.398%K +0.445%G +0.017%6.4%2026-10-12 15:59
TABtouch🎯67.00I 1.49%NM 1.38%EV +90.01%E +1.34%K +1.36%G +1.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.31%EV -9.45%E -9.00%K -188.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -1.68%E -0.186%K -0.210%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 16:00
Betr (AU)🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +16.28%E +0.397%K +0.407%G +0.066%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.70%EV -6.86%E -6.35%K -85.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.02%EV -7.14%E -0.840%K -0.952%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 15:29
TAB🎯41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV +16.28%E +0.397%K +0.407%G +0.066%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.36%EV -3.41%E -3.05%K -28.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -28.99%E -4.46%K -5.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-13 05:53
Betway🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV -40.44%E -1.93%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 83.78%EV -7.72%E -7.22%K -110.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -18.06%E -2.41%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-12 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎85.00I 1.18%NM 1.16%1.11I 90.09%NM 88.96%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%1.3%2026-10-13 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎75.00I 1.33%NM 1.31%1.11I 90.09%NM 88.83%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%1.4%2026-10-13 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎75.00I 1.33%NM 1.31%1.11I 90.09%NM 88.83%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%1.4%2026-10-13 05:55