The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Afghanistan v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Afghanistan (Local)

Prediction 20.40%4.90fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.96%20.40%20.40%21.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.474.504.6023.81%22.38%22.22%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 62.72%1.59fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -8.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.35%62.72%62.72%63.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.511.5269.44%66.73%66.23%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.87%5.93fair odd
EV -7.19%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.42%16.87%16.87%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.465.505.5019.05%18.32%18.18%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Afghanistan (Local): 20.40%; Bangladesh (Visit): 62.72%; Draw: 16.87%. For Bangladesh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.52, with an expected value of -4.66%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -6.15%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -9.05%E -6.24%K -20.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-10 22:34
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.66%E -3.07%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.66%E -3.07%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:01
Grosvenor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.29%E -3.50%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.92%E -3.94%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.92%E -3.94%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.41%E -2.17%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 22:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.19%E -1.82%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.92%E -3.94%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -11.41%E -2.17%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 22:34
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -10.23%E -2.32%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.94%EV -6.54%E -4.39%K -13.35%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -8.88%E -1.64%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -11.66%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.68%E -6.72%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-10 22:20
TAB🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -14.31%E -3.41%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.92%E -3.94%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.19%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 05:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%1.0%2026-10-11 05:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.04%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.4%2026-10-11 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.04%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.4%2026-10-11 05:55