The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sri Lanka v Ireland

Kickoff: 2026-06-23 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sri Lanka (Local)

Prediction 69.25%1.44fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -11.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.08%69.35%69.33%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.361.361.3874.63%73.53%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ireland (Visit)

Prediction 30.75%3.25fair odd
EV -0.048%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.021%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%30.65%30.67%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.103.2534.48%32.18%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sri Lanka (Local): 69.25%; Ireland (Visit): 30.75%. For Ireland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.252. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.250, with an expected value of -0.048%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.44%E -3.22%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.44%E -3.22%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 13:10
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.048%E -0.015%K -0.021%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-23 13:10
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.048%E -0.015%K -0.021%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-23 13:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-23 13:20
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.66%E -1.50%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 13:10
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.66%E -1.50%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-22 08:29
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.66%E -1.50%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.20%E -2.03%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-23 13:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 13:10
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 13:10
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 13:08
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 13:10
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.74%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-23 13:10
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.83%E -4.28%K -16.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -10.81%E -3.73%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-23 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.52%E -4.83%K -18.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -1.59%E -0.495%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-23 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.52%E -4.83%K -18.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -3.12%E -0.991%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-23 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -7.21%E -5.38%K -21.21%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -2.20%E -0.692%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-23 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-06-23 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-06-23 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-06-23 13:20
Matchbook◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-06-23 13:20
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%3.2%2026-06-23 13:20