Language:English
New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New Zealand (Local)
Prediction 74.02%1.35fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -12.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.92%74.09%74.00%75.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.271.271.3080.00%78.74%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sri Lanka (Visit)
Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.461%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%25.91%26.00%27.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.753.9028.57%26.81%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 74.02%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 25.98%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +1.34%E +0.343%K +0.461%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV +0.039%E +0.010%K +0.014%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.52%E -3.50%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-16 11:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.52%E -3.50%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-16 11:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.56%E -0.683%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.86%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.00%E -4.72%K -22.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.86%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.00%E -4.72%K -22.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -5.16%E -1.41%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.78%E -2.91%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.52%E -3.50%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-16 03:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 13:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.26%E -4.11%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.48%E -5.98%K -29.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.46%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-16 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.78%E -2.91%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.78%E -2.91%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.06%E -2.59%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 0.2% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65% | 3.1% | 2026-06-16 13:20 |