Language:English
England v New Zealand
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 71.10%1.41fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -9.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%71.27%70.65%74.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.341.3678.13%74.93%74.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New Zealand (Visit)
Prediction 28.90%3.46fair odd
EV +6.64%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +2.47%
Growth +0.164%
assuming max odds 3.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.90%28.73%29.35%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.253.6933.33%30.52%30.77%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 71.10%; New Zealand (Visit): 28.90%. For New Zealand (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.10%EV -8.28%E -6.42%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.90%EV +6.64%E +1.80%K +2.47%G +0.164% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -8.99%E -7.03%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +4.04%E +1.12%K +1.55%G +0.063% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.15%E +0.329%K +0.460%G +0.005% | 3.8% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.57%E -5.82%K -25.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.15%E +0.329%K +0.460%G +0.005% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 17:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.57%E -5.82%K -25.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.74%E -0.512%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.63%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.63%E -1.40%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.30%E -2.43%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.30%E -2.43%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.30%E -2.43%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.30%E -2.43%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.02%E -2.97%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.07%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.02%E -2.97%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.02%E -2.97%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.73%E -3.53%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.52%E -2.35%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.02%E -2.97%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.96%E -2.85%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.44%E -4.09%K -16.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.30%E -4.43%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-27 17:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.7% | 2026-06-27 17:20 |