Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Australia v Netherlands

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 09:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Australia (Local)

Prediction 94.95%1.05fair odd

EV -4.10%

Edge -4.06%

Kelly -410.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

94.44%94.95%94.95%98.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.39%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Netherlands (Visit)

Prediction 5.05%19.80fair odd

EV +238.38%

Edge +3.56%

Kelly +3.61%

Growth +8.61%

assuming max odds 67.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

1.47%5.05%5.05%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

17.0038.5441.0067.005.88%2.59%2.44%1.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Australia (Local): 94.95%; Netherlands (Visit): 5.05%. For Netherlands (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 19.80. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 67.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +238.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.05%E -5.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +238.38%E +3.56%K +3.61%G +8.61%	1.5%	2026-06-20 09:09
Unibet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:08
Virgin Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:11
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:11
Casumo🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:11
TABtouch🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	1.4%	2026-06-20 09:11
Paddy Power🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.05%E -5.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	2.4%	2026-06-20 09:09
Sky Bet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.05%E -5.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +107.07%E +2.61%K +2.68%G +2.87%	2.4%	2026-06-20 09:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +71.72%E +2.11%K +2.17%G +1.56%	2.0%	2026-06-20 09:09
Coral🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.10%E -4.06%K -410.10%G +0.000%	34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +71.72%E +2.11%K +2.17%G +1.56%	2.0%	2026-06-20 09:10
Betway🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.05%E -5.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.06%E +0.289%K +0.303%G +0.018%	4.8%	2026-06-20 09:09
BoyleSports🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.05%E -5.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -14.14%E -0.832%K -0.884%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-17 19:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 98.89%	90.00I 1.11%NM 1.11%	0.1%	2026-06-20 09:18
Smarkets◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%	1.0%	2026-06-20 09:20