The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New Zealand v Pakistan

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand (Local)

Prediction 59.61%1.68fair odd
EV +5.51%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +7.15%
Growth +0.394%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%64.46%59.64%96.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.561.601.77100.00%63.93%62.50%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 40.39%2.48fair odd
EV +950.17%
Edge +36.55%
Kelly +38.01%
Growth +361.13%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.70%35.54%40.36%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.103.442.3326.0047.62%29.07%42.92%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 59.61%; Pakistan (Visit): 40.39%. For Pakistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +950.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -40.39%E -40.39%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +950.17%E +36.55%K +38.01%G +361.13%3.8%2026-02-21 15:41
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.06%E -1.28%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.41%E -4.09%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.87%E -1.63%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.22%E -3.28%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.08%E -2.16%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.41%E -4.09%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.08%E -2.16%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 14:24
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.48%E -2.34%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 14:45
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.89%E -2.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.10%E -3.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 14:45
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.10%E -3.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.10%E -3.09%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 15:10
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.41%E -4.09%K -11.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.12%E -4.05%K -7.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-21 14:40
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -0.453%E -0.271%K -0.677%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -11.14%E -5.06%K -9.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 14:30
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +5.51%E +3.11%K +7.15%G +0.394%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -15.18%E -7.23%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-21 15:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.5%2026-02-21 15:41
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%3.7%2026-02-21 15:42
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%5.7%2026-02-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%5.7%2026-02-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%5.7%2026-02-21 15:45