The School of Odds
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India v South Africa

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

India (Local)

Prediction 66.43%1.51fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -8.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.67%66.39%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.421.4572.46%70.62%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Africa (Visit)

Prediction 33.57%2.98fair odd
EV +0.718%
Edge +0.239%
Kelly +0.359%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%33.33%33.61%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.873.0037.04%35.17%34.84%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: India (Local): 66.43%; South Africa (Visit): 33.57%. For South Africa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.718%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.718%E +0.239%K +0.359%G +0.003%4.8%2026-02-22 13:09
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:39
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 08:40
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.34%E -4.49%K -15.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 13:14
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 13:10
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-20 05:35
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.64%E -0.910%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 13:15
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.31%E -1.15%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 13:15
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 13:10
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.34%E -3.02%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.32%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-22 13:23
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.32%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-22 13:10
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.68%E -2.54%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-22 13:09
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.34%E -3.02%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.34%E -3.02%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-22 13:25
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.01%E -3.50%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 13:10
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.67%E -4.00%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 13:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.51%EV -7.67%E -5.52%K -19.66%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.49%EV -7.34%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 13:15
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.02%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 10:49
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.34%E -3.02%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 13:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.01%E -3.50%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 13:25
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.00%E -5.00%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 13:10
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.33%E -6.04%K -21.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -9.35%E -3.46%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 13:25
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.33%E -6.04%K -21.92%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -9.35%E -3.46%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-02-22 13:25
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%0.2%2026-02-22 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-02-22 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-02-22 13:25
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-02-22 13:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.18%12.0%2026-02-22 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.18%12.0%2026-02-22 13:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%46.00I 2.17%NM 1.93%12.7%2026-02-22 13:25