The School of Odds
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India v England

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

India (Local)

Prediction 65.13%1.54fair odd
EV -0.996%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%65.21%65.09%67.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.461.461.5270.42%68.57%68.73%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

England (Visit)

Prediction 34.87%2.87fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.736%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.64%34.79%34.91%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.702.9340.00%37.19%37.04%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: India (Local): 65.13%; England (Visit): 34.87%. For England (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV +2.16%E +0.736%K +1.12%G +0.024%4.6%2026-03-05 13:15
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.86%E -4.80%K -15.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.38%E -0.849%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 13:25
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -4.12%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-05 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.12%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.12%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 13:25
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.12%E -1.50%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 13:25
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -5.51%E -2.03%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-05 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.60%E -2.43%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-05 13:25
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:45
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:50
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:45
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:50
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.25%E -2.89%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 08:45
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.86%E -2.17%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 13:00
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.73%EV -4.90%E -3.36%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.27%EV -6.56%E -2.45%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 13:10
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -6.56%E -2.45%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-05 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.60%E -2.43%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.61%E -2.87%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-05 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.51%E -5.29%K -17.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -7.61%E -2.87%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-05 13:00
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.65%E -3.30%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.65%E -3.30%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 13:25
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.21%E -4.31%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.65%E -3.30%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 13:05
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -2.95%E -1.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -9.35%E -3.60%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.35%E -3.60%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-05 13:25
Neds🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -5.55%E -3.83%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.35%E -3.60%K -5.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-05 13:25
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -0.996%E -0.655%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -12.84%E -5.13%K -8.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-05 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%0.0%2026-03-05 13:25
Matchbook◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%0.0%2026-03-05 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-03-05 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%0.2%2026-03-05 13:25
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%6.0%2026-03-05 13:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.76%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.30%46.00I 2.17%NM 1.93%12.4%2026-03-05 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.76%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.30%46.00I 2.17%NM 1.93%12.4%2026-03-05 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.76%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.30%46.00I 2.17%NM 1.93%12.4%2026-03-05 13:25