Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yorkshire v Derbyshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yorkshire (Local)

Prediction 61.76%1.62fair odd

EV -3.04%

Edge -1.93%

Kelly -5.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.64%62.01%61.04%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.511.511.5769.44%66.39%66.23%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derbyshire (Visit)

Prediction 38.24%2.62fair odd

EV +5.16%

Edge +1.88%

Kelly +2.95%

Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.37%37.99%38.96%40.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.322.502.502.7543.10%40.05%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yorkshire (Local): 61.76%; Derbyshire (Visit): 38.24%. For Derbyshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -11.06%E -7.68%K -25.15%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +5.16%E +1.88%K +2.95%G +0.152%	5.8%	2026-05-24 14:20
SportsBet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.65%EV -9.83%E -6.73%K -21.37%G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45%NM 35.35%EV +2.10%E +0.786%K +1.26%G +0.026%	5.9%	2026-05-24 14:20
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +0.187%E +0.071%K +0.115%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-24 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +0.187%E +0.071%K +0.115%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-24 14:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +0.187%E +0.071%K +0.115%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-24 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -3.25%E -1.29%K -2.13%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.12%E -4.03%K -11.78%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.12%E -4.03%K -11.78%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 14:20
Unibet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.12%E -4.03%K -11.78%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-24 14:20
Casumo🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Grosvenor🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
LeoVegas🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
TABtouch🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -6.74%E -4.46%K -13.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -10.45%E -7.20%K -23.22%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-24 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-24 14:20
TAB🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.23%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Bet Victor🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.51%E -3.60%K -10.39%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.51%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-24 14:18
Marathon Bet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -6.12%E -4.03%K -11.78%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -9.76%E -4.13%K -7.17%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-24 13:00
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-24 14:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -3.04%E -1.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -11.28%E -4.86%K -8.55%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-23 11:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%	1.0%	2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%	2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%	1.3%	2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%	2.1%	2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%	2.1%	2026-05-24 14:20
Smarkets◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%	3.2%	2026-05-24 14:20