Language:English
Worcestershire v Somerset
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Worcestershire (Local)
Prediction 36.25%2.76fair odd
EV -0.322%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.184%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%36.88%35.84%42.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.582.582.7546.08%38.72%38.83%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Somerset (Visit)
Prediction 63.75%1.57fair odd
EV +3.28%
Edge +2.03%
Kelly +5.29%
Growth +0.174%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.41%63.12%64.16%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.6269.44%67.19%66.67%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcestershire (Local): 36.25%; Somerset (Visit): 63.75%. For Somerset (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -16.63%E -7.23%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +3.28%E +2.03%K +5.29%G +0.174% | 5.2% | 2026-06-26 23:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.59%EV -21.35%E -9.84%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV +2.64%E +1.64%K +4.33%G +0.115% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 11:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.68%EV -12.65%E -5.25%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.32%EV -3.09%E -2.04%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.03%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-28 13:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.03%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-28 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.76%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 13:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.76%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 13:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.57%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.37%E -2.91%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.95%E -1.49%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.64%E -3.81%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.13%E -0.791%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.56%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -2.50%E -0.928%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -7.56%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.76%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.56%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.38%E -3.75%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.56%E -5.21%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-28 13:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.322%E -0.117%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.322%E -0.117%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.322%E -0.117%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.322%E -0.117%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.322%E -0.117%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.76%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.19%E -5.69%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 13:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14% | 1.0% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10% | 4.7% | 2026-06-28 13:20 |