The School of Odds
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Worcestershire v Northamptonshire

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Worcestershire (Local)

Prediction 46.29%2.16fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.97%46.26%46.38%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.022.002.1050.25%49.56%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northamptonshire (Visit)

Prediction 53.71%1.86fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%53.74%53.62%55.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.781.8058.82%56.82%56.18%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Worcestershire (Local): 46.29%; Northamptonshire (Visit): 53.71%. For Worcestershire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -2.79%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.33%E -1.85%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-24 13:10
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.33%E -1.85%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-24 13:10
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.62%E -4.43%K -10.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 13:10
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -3.71%E -1.78%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -8.70%E -5.12%K -12.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-23 12:10
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.10%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.01%E -3.44%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-22 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.68%EV -6.95%E -3.46%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.32%EV -5.47%E -3.11%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-23 06:29
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.33%E -1.85%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 13:20
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.33%E -1.85%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-23 08:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:40
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 11:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.01%E -3.44%K -8.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-22 22:29
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.09%E -4.10%K -9.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 13:08
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.70%E -5.12%K -12.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-24 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.70%E -5.12%K -12.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-24 13:08
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.70%E -5.12%K -12.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-24 13:08
Marathon Bet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.88%E -3.96%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.09%E -4.10%K -9.71%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%0.4%2026-05-24 13:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%1.4%2026-05-24 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%1.4%2026-05-24 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.97%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.03%1.4%2026-05-24 13:10
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%2.1%2026-05-24 13:20