The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sussex v Surrey

Kickoff: 2026-06-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sussex (Local)

Prediction 35.40%2.82fair odd
EV +2.31%
Edge +0.800%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.63%35.54%35.47%37.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.702.702.8940.49%37.00%37.04%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Surrey (Visit)

Prediction 64.60%1.55fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.37%64.46%64.53%67.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.5071.43%69.58%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sussex (Local): 35.40%; Surrey (Visit): 64.60%. For Sussex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.63%EV +2.31%E +0.800%K +1.22%G +0.028%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.37%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +1.60%E +0.559%K +0.857%G +0.014%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-26 17:39
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +1.60%E +0.559%K +0.857%G +0.014%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-26 17:40
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -0.875%E -0.313%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-26 17:40
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.65%E -0.962%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.33%E -4.37%K -14.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-26 17:50
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.65%E -0.962%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.33%E -4.37%K -14.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-26 17:49
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.65%E -0.962%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 17:38
BetOnline.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -4.06%E -1.50%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-26 14:36
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 17:29
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-26 17:20
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:30
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:20
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:29
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.62%E -5.33%K -17.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 17:29
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.42%E -1.64%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-26 17:49
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.10%E -2.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-26 17:49
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.25%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-26 17:39
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.10%E -2.07%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-26 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.96%E -3.06%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.33%E -4.37%K -14.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-26 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.91%EV -9.02%E -3.51%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.09%EV -6.98%E -4.85%K -15.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-26 17:19
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -12.56%E -5.08%K -8.54%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -3.75%E -2.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-26 14:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%1.4%2026-06-26 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%1.4%2026-06-26 17:50
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.18%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.82%1.8%2026-06-26 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.33%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.67%2.7%2026-06-26 17:50
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%3.0%2026-06-26 17:50