Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sussex v Middlesex

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sussex (Local)

Prediction 63.44%1.58fair odd

EV -3.58%

Edge -2.35%

Kelly -6.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%63.41%63.41%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.451.441.5271.43%69.04%69.20%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Middlesex (Visit)

Prediction 36.56%2.73fair odd

EV +6.04%

Edge +2.08%

Kelly +3.18%

Growth +0.192%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.56%36.59%36.59%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.702.622.9040.82%37.11%38.17%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sussex (Local): 63.44%; Middlesex (Visit): 36.56%. For Middlesex (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Casumo🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
TABtouch🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
Unibet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
LeoVegas🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -11.19%E -7.99%K -27.98%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +6.04%E +2.08%K +3.18%G +0.192%	5.9%	2026-05-30 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.20%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-30 17:50
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.20%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-30 17:50
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.20%E -1.60%K -2.59%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-30 17:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.93%E -1.90%K -3.08%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-26 12:10
SportsBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.12%E -4.13%K -12.74%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.93%E -1.90%K -3.08%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-30 17:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.65%E -6.01%K -19.67%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -4.93%E -1.90%K -3.08%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-30 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.79%EV -6.75%E -4.59%K -14.36%G +0.000%	2.59I 38.61%NM 36.21%EV -5.30%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-26 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -8.65%E -6.01%K -19.67%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -5.66%E -2.20%K -3.58%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-30 17:49
TAB🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.58%E -2.35%K -6.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-30 17:49
Bet Victor🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-30 17:50
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.02%E -5.53%K -17.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-30 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.85%E -3.23%K -9.69%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-30 17:49
Betsson🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -6.12%E -4.13%K -12.74%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-30 17:49
NordicBet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -6.12%E -4.13%K -12.74%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.18%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-30 17:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%	2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%	0.3%	2026-05-30 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%	2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%	0.3%	2026-05-30 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%	2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%	0.3%	2026-05-30 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%	2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%	0.3%	2026-05-30 17:50
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82%	2.1%	2026-05-30 17:50