The School of Odds
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Sussex v Hampshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sussex (Local)

Prediction 35.37%2.83fair odd
EV +6.10%
Edge +2.03%
Kelly +3.05%
Growth +0.186%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%35.94%35.18%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.632.623.0043.48%38.02%38.17%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hampshire (Visit)

Prediction 64.63%1.55fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +2.90%
Kelly +7.59%
Growth +0.357%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%64.06%64.82%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.481.451.6271.94%67.74%68.97%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -18.66%E -8.11%K -14.35%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +4.71%E +2.90%K +7.59%G +0.357%5.2%2026-07-12 12:50
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -17.95%E -7.74%K -13.60%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV +2.77%E +1.74%K +4.69%G +0.130%6.0%2026-07-12 12:24
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
Grosvenor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
ATG (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -15.12%E -6.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +0.182%E +0.117%K +0.330%G +0.001%6.2%2026-07-12 13:14
Pinnacle2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -14.41%E -5.96%K -10.15%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.58%EV -2.40%E -1.59%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:14
888sport2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.05%E -3.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.05%E -2.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 13:14
NordicBet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.74%E -0.997%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.28%E -4.33%K -13.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 13:14
Betsson2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.74%E -0.997%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.28%E -4.33%K -13.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 13:14
TAB2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.51%E -1.67%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.28%E -4.33%K -13.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 13:15
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.05%E -3.09%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.28%E -4.33%K -13.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 13:14
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.74%E -0.997%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.93%E -4.81%K -15.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 13:14
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.34%E -2.80%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.93%E -4.81%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 13:14
betano_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.34%E -2.80%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.93%E -4.81%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 13:14
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +0.795%E +0.279%K +0.430%G +0.003%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -8.22%E -5.79%K -19.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 13:20
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.973%E -0.348%K -0.541%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.22%E -5.79%K -19.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 13:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -0.973%E -0.348%K -0.541%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.22%E -5.79%K -19.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 13:14
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -6.28%E -2.37%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.22%E -5.79%K -19.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 13:24
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +6.10%E +2.03%K +3.05%G +0.186%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 13:19
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +6.10%E +2.03%K +3.05%G +0.186%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +6.10%E +2.03%K +3.05%G +0.186%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 13:19
Coral2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +1.50%E +0.523%K +0.803%G +0.012%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 13:19
Ladbrokes (UK)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +1.50%E +0.523%K +0.803%G +0.012%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 13:19
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.74%E -0.997%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.51%E -6.80%K -23.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:14
SportsBet2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25%EV +3.27%E +1.12%K +1.70%G +0.056%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75%EV -10.16%E -7.31%K -26.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 13:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%0.9%2026-07-12 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36%1.8%2026-07-12 13:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36%1.8%2026-07-12 13:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%3.3%2026-07-12 13:24
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%6.5%2026-07-12 13:25