Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Surrey v Middlesex

Kickoff: 2026-06-03 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Surrey (Local)

Prediction 72.01%1.39fair odd

EV -5.67%

Edge -4.32%

Kelly -18.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.29%72.00%72.01%75.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.291.301.3180.00%77.62%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Middlesex (Visit)

Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd

EV +7.76%

Edge +2.02%

Kelly +2.72%

Growth +0.211%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.51%28.00%27.99%29.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.463.403.8532.26%28.86%29.41%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Surrey (Local): 72.01%; Middlesex (Visit): 27.99%. For Middlesex (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -9.99%E -7.99%K -39.95%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV +7.76%E +2.02%K +2.72%G +0.211%	6.0%	2026-06-03 17:20
Paddy Power🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -7.11%E -5.51%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +4.96%E +1.32%K +1.80%G +0.089%	4.2%	2026-06-03 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -7.83%E -6.11%K -27.95%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +4.96%E +1.32%K +1.80%G +0.089%	4.8%	2026-06-03 17:19
Coral🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -7.83%E -6.11%K -27.95%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +4.96%E +1.32%K +1.80%G +0.089%	4.8%	2026-06-03 17:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -9.99%E -7.99%K -39.95%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +4.96%E +1.32%K +1.80%G +0.089%	6.7%	2026-06-03 17:18
TAB🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.83%E -6.11%K -27.95%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +0.761%E +0.211%K +0.293%G +0.002%	5.9%	2026-06-03 17:19
Betway🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -9.99%E -7.99%K -39.95%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.04%E -0.582%K -0.815%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-03 17:20
Betsson🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -9.27%E -7.35%K -35.64%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -3.44%E -0.996%K -1.40%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-06-03 17:18
NordicBet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -9.27%E -7.35%K -35.64%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -3.44%E -0.996%K -1.40%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-06-03 17:17
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
Virgin Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:20
TABtouch🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
Grosvenor🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
LeoVegas🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
Casumo🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:19
Unibet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.39%E -4.91%K -21.29%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-03 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.01%EV -5.67%E -4.32%K -18.28%G +0.000%	3.37I 29.67%NM 27.99%EV -5.68%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-03 17:20
Bet Victor🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -7.11%E -5.51%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -7.64%E -2.31%K -3.32%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-06-03 17:16
Marathon Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.56%EV -5.67%E -4.32%K -18.28%G +0.000%	3.14I 31.85%NM 29.44%EV -12.11%E -3.86%K -5.66%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-06-03 17:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -5.67%E -4.32%K -18.28%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -13.23%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-03 17:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-06-03 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-06-03 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-06-03 17:20
Matchbook◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%	0.9%	2026-06-03 17:20
Smarkets◎	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.07%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.93%	1.9%	2026-06-03 17:20